Wednesday, March 29, 2006

More evidence that the media is not to blame for Iraq--or is it?

The wingers want everyone to believe that the U.S. media are the reason why things are going so badly in Iraq. They want that almost as much as they want everyone to believe that nothing bad is happening in Iraq.

Yet another problem for the wingers arose before this latest self righteous reign of bullshit began. On March 19, 2006, Iyad Allawi told the BBC that Iraq was in a civil war:
We are losing each day, as an average, 50 to 60 people through the country, if not more...If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is.
Allawi is the former Iraqi Prime Minister. In fact, he was the first Iraqi Prime Minister after the fall of Saddam. In fact, he was hand-picked by the Bush administration to be Prime Minister. I am not trying to prove that there is civil war in Iraq. I am merely showing that 1) the very person the Bush administration wanted to head up the Iraqi government says there is a civil war, and 2) Allawi's comments were not some fabricated or manipulated story created by the media.

Another problem for the wingers is a report by the L.A. Times on March 7, 2006, which disclosed statements by Zalmay Khalilzad. He is the U.S Ambassador to Iraq, and he was also hand-picked by the Bush administration. Here are some excerpts:
In remarks that were among the frankest and bleakest public assessments of the Iraq situation by a high-level American official, U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said the "potential is there" for sectarian violence to become full-blown civil war.

For now, Iraq has pulled back from that prospect after the wave of sectarian reprisals that followed the Feb. 22 bombing of a Shiite Muslim shrine in Samarra, he said. But "if another incident [occurs], Iraq is really vulnerable to it at this time, in my judgment," Khalilzad said in an interview with The Times.

Abandoning Iraq in the way the U.S. disengaged from civil wars in Lebanon, Afghanistan and Somalia could have dramatic global repercussions, he said.

"We have opened the Pandora's box and the question is, what is the way forward?" Khalilzad said.
(emphasis added). Once again, this is not some biased, liberal, lover-of-terrorists media scum making these comments. It is George W. Bush's personal freaking choice to be the top U.S. diplomat in Iraq.

Furthermore, the reports on these statements from Khalilzad and Allawi were not reports about IEDs or suicide bombers, or kidnappings, etc. Even so, the wingers would have us believe that reporting the statements of two high-ranking officials that were anointed by the Bush administration its ownself shows that the media is focusing on only the negative.

Khalilzad is absolutely right about opening Pandora's box. What still astounds me is that it was so damn bloody obvious before the war that Iraq was a Pandora's box. That was a solid reason for never invading in the first place, but did anyone hear that in the mainstream media before the war? If you did, that voice was hardly above a whisper, because the majority of the media were just going along with all the bullshit. So maybe the media is to blame for Iraq after all.

Monday, March 27, 2006

Iraq: Gee, Wally--if only the nasty old media wasn't so negative...

Led by people such as Laura Ingraham, the righteous wingers now have a new strategy for winning in Iraq: blame the media.

I am not going to bother to write about the details behind this campaign. Instead, I will make a few choice comments, ask some questions, make a few more choice comments, and present some evidence which makes this new strategy make the claims of WMD like established fact.

The choice comment

The geniuses saying that the media does not ever report the good news from Iraq really want the media to report ONLY good news from Iraq. Wing nuts like Ingraham never want to have bad news reported ever again.

The questions

For the purposes of these questions, assume that the media from now on reports only feel-good stories from Iraq.
  • Will the media reports in this country change any of the facts on the ground in Iraq?
  • Will media reports provide the physical resources and actual plans that are needed on the ground in Iraq?
  • Are positive media reports here going to defeat the insurgency?
  • Are positive media reports here going to provide electicity, food, and jobs for Iraqis?
  • Are positive media reports going to make up for the appalling lack of planning for Iraq?
  • Are Iraqis going to see all the media reports here?
  • Are positive media reports going to suddenly create a winning strategy that can be applied on the ground in Iraq?
There are plenty of other questions related to these, but the answer to all the questions is not just no but HELL NO.

More choice comments

More positive reports from Iraq will accomplish one thing--increase support for the war here in the U.S. And that is the real objective of the wingers. And it shows yet another part of the Bush administration's SOP. Instead of devising and implementing realistic and viable policy, the Bush administration is all about selling "the message." This applies not just to Iraq, but to everything. The top priorities are getting and keeping popular support and getting and keeping power.

The evidence

First, go back and read the last paragraph of Some belated thoughts on the third anniversary of the Iraq war, in which I discuss the story of Tal Afar. This is a very positive story. It is a story that Bush spent half of his March 20 speech telling. It is a story that was told in detail eight days earlier on that most evil of media shows, "60 Minutes."

Second, go read a report about Iraq that was published on March 8, 2006. Here are some excerpts:
A climate of extreme violence in which people were killed for political and other reasons continued.
*******
During the year unsettled conditions prevented effective governance in areas of the country, and insurgent and terrorist attacks hampered the government's human rights performance.
*******
Government military and police forces under government control killed armed fighters or persons planning or carrying out violence against civilian or military targets; according to personal accounts and numerous press reports, these forces caused inadvertent civilian deaths. Treatment of detainees under government authority was deficient in some cases, including killing, torture, and other cruel, inhuman, or degrading abuse [.]

Former regime elements, local and foreign fighters, and terrorists waged guerrilla warfare and a terrorist campaign of violence impacting every aspect of life. Killings, kidnappings, torture, and intimidation were fueled by political grievances and ethnic and religious tensions and were supported by parts of the population.
*******
Bombings, executions, killings, kidnappings, shootings, and intimidation were a daily occurrence throughout all regions and sectors of society. An illustrative list of these attacks, even a highly selective one, could scarcely reflect the broad dimension of the violence.
*******
All sectors of society suffered from the continued wave of kidnappings. Kidnappers often killed their victims despite the payment of ransom. The widespread nature of this phenomenon precluded reliable statistics.
*******
Throughout the year terrorists systematically damaged and destroyed key infrastructure. Principally, but not exclusively in the central region of the country, sabotage to oil, electricity, and transportation lines reduced the movement and availability of critical services and goods to the population.
*******
Extremists, including terrorist groups and militia members, targeted many individuals because of their religious orientation, and very conservative elements of society targeted others because of their secular leanings. Many also were victims of the general lawlessness that permitted insurgents and criminal gangs, as well as those in police uniform to victimize citizens with impunity. In addition to kidnapping, individuals were the victims of harassment, intimidation, and murder. Some Christians in Basrah reportedly were forced to pay protection for their personal welfare. Women and girls reportedly often were threatened for not wearing the traditional headscarf (hijab), assaulted with acid for noncompliance, and sometimes killed for refusing to cover their heads or for wearing western-style clothing. Some women were reportedly denied employment and educational opportunities because they were non-Muslim or did not present themselves as sufficiently conservative.
*******
Large-scale financial as well as political, personal corruption in the government remained a severe problem. The Commission on Public Integrity (CPI) head Radhi Hamza al-Radhi told the press in March that corruption within the government was widespread and had worsened[.]
(emphasis added). This report did not come from some freedom-hating, heathen, liberal media outlet. No, the report came from the Bush administration its ownself, specifically from the State Department.

But hey, if only the media would not report any of these facts, everything would be all right.

Yeah, right.

Sunday, March 26, 2006

Pre-Iraq war game analysis is online.

I mentioned earlier that I had previously done a good deal of research and writing on war gaming before the Iraq war and that I would be posting that work on a separate site.

The new site is http://mc-02.blogspot.com, and it examines Millennium Challenge 02, which was the major war game done before the Iraq war.

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Some belated thoughts on the 3rd anniversary of the Iraq war

Yesterday marked the third anniversary of the Iraq war. I will post more on this topic, but for now, I will go with a few quick (for me, anyway) thoughts.

Yesterday was the first day of spring, yet much of the country was experiencing winter weather. The Midwest got hit with record snow storms, and here in Wichita Falls, the temperature never got above the low 40's, and the wind was out of the north all day at about 30 miles per hour (historical data show that the average temp here for March 20 is 55, the average high is 68, and the average low is 42). How ironic that the Iraq anniversary fell on the start of the season which signifies renewal and new life and yet there was a cold wind blowing over most of the nation.

As I read and heard the comments of Clueless George and Big Dick on Sunday and Monday, two things came to mind. First, I had an image of Kevin Bacon from the scene of "Animal House" when the homecoming parade turns into chaos. As the situation gets increasingly--and obviously--worse, Bacon's character keeps yelling "Remain calm. All is well." Second, I imagined scientists and lobbyists and executives representing the tobacco industry in years past were listening to Bush and Cheney and thinking, "Man, these guys are good."

One portion of Bush's speech on Monday highlights just how full of it these guys are. Bush focused on one of the administration's favorite bullshit claims, namely that the media never reports any good news but rather reports only the bad. His example for this assertion was the story of the town of Tal Afar, which had been taken over by Al Qaeda, but the U.S. military, working with Iraqis, drove out Al Qaeda and reclaimed the town. This is indeed a very good story. It is a story that should be told. And Bush spent approximately half of the speech telling the story. The problem for George is that one of the biggest news shows in the MSM (mainstream media) had already told it eight days earlier. "60 Minutes" devoted a full segment to the story of Tal Afar, and it was nothing but positive. Indeed, Bush's version of the story was practically identical to what "60 Minutes" aired. And by the way, "60 Minutes" was the top rated news magazine show for the 2004-2005 season.

Sunday, March 19, 2006

The sports editor of the Wichita Falls paper describes the t.o. deal.

The sports editor of the Wichita Falls paper (the Times Record News) is a man named Nick Gholson. In general he is brusque bordering on cantankerous, but the man is a damn good writer. He is an old school sportswriter, and there are times his writing is absolutely superlative. His column today is a good example. It is about the t.o. deal. I read it after my online discussion about the deal. I was really glad to see someone else call him a punk. Gholson is somewhere around 60, but he is the type that would go right up to t.o. and call him a punk and not hesitate to throw down if t.o. got upset.
DALLAS - If you're sitting there this morning drinking whisky as you read the paper through bloodshot eyes, you just might understand this Jerry Jones-Terrell Owens deal.

Or if you've been up only an hour or so and have already smoked half a pack of cigarettes, you and Mr. Jones are riding in the same boat.

You're all addicts.

T.O. is just Jerry's next snort of coke.

He has to have him - can't you see?

The owner of the Dallas Cowboys needs that big spotlight just like some of you need to light up that next Marlboro.

We saw it first when he fired Tom Landry and brought in Jimmy Johnson. Then there was the Deion Sanders deal. Later came Bill Parcells. And now it's this punk T.O.

Jerry is also addicted to winning Super Bowls, and he hasn't had that fix in 10 years. He sees T.O. as a quick solution - his best and quite possibly his last chance to hold another Lombardi Trophy.

T.O. is a talented wide receiver, maybe the best in the business. But there are no guarantees he will win you a Super Bowl. He has never won one for anybody else.

It's a much better bet that he will go bonkers and destroy the Cowboys from inside their own locker room.

Just ask the Eagles.

But Jerry seems blind to that.

Just like the alcoholic doesn't see his liver disintegrating. Or the smoker who can't see that spot on his lung.

- Nick Gholson

More Junior hockey talk: Wildcats make the playoffs.

On Thursday night the Wichita Falls Wildcats played host to the division-leading and two-time defending NAHL champion Texas Tornado. The Wildcats were in third place in the South Division, one point ahead of the fourth place Springfield Jr. Blues and five points ahead of the fifth place Santa Fe Roadrunners. The Tornado and the Texarkana Bandits had already clinched two of the four playoff spots, and the remaining two were very much up for grabs. At that time, the Wildcats could control their own destiny by winning two of their last six games. With one of their best performances of the season, the Wildcats controlled the game and beat the Tornado 3-1. That meant that all they needed to secure a playoff berth was one point in the last five games. That would be far from assured, as the Wildcats had to play the Tornado on its home ice on Friday and Saturday. Friday night the Tornado controlled the action and gained a 6-2 win. Springfield lost, so the Wildcats were still in third place. Saturday, the 'Cats were down 3-2 late in the third period, but tied it up to send the game to overtime. That meant the Wildcats got that crucial one point in the standings to make the playoffs! The bad news was that the Tornado, with one of the best power plays in the league, started OT with the man advantage and scored the game winner early in the extra session. Still, there was joy here in The Falls because of the one point.

There was doubt in the middle of the season. The Wildcats started out the first third of the season on fire, and then won only about a quarter of their games in the next third. The offense was nonexistent for much of that time. The steadiest player continued to be the goalie, Tom Billick. His stats do not show how good he has been this year. For instance, in a game in Fairbanks, the Fairbanks Ice Dogs scored 4 goals, which sounds bad, but they took 56 shots. The worst part was that our boys only managed 18, and almost half of those came in the third period. The offense has steadily improved since then, and that has keyed the successful run to the playoffs. When the Wildcats keep from making bad mistakes, they can beat anybody in this league. I can't wait for the playoffs!

Now the playoff teams in the South Division have been decided, but seeding is still very much up in the air. The Tornado leads the division by three points over Texarkana with each team having two games remaining. The Wildcats and Jr. Blues are tied in points, but Springfield has two games left while Wichita Falls has three, and Wichita Falls is currently in third only by virtue of Springfield having one more loss. Santa Fe plays here on Thursday night, then goes to Frisco for two games against the Tornado. Texarkana plays here on Friday and Saturday. Texarkana and the Tornado could switch positions, and so could Springfield and Wichita Falls. 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3 in the first round. Stay tuned.

On November 27 I basically wrote that the South Division was the toughest, best division in the NAHL, and the season-ending standings prove it. The South Division is the only division in which every team will finish the season with 50 or more points. The last place team in our division, Santa Fe, would have made the playoffs in every other division. Going into the final weekend of the season, the South Division was 64-27-10 in inter-divisional play, and every team had a winning record. And in a 20-team league, the South Division holds the 1, 2, 5, and 7 positions in attendance.

Saturday, March 18, 2006

Kiss my ass, Jerry Jones.

The Dallas Cowboys today signed t.o.

For the next season, I am a Giants fan.

I have lived in Texas all but the first six months of my life. I have been a Cowboys fan since I was old enough to know about football. I remember the Ice Bowl. I cried when the Browns beat the crap out of the Cowboys in the playoffs one year, whereupon my mother told me that football players didn't cry, and I pointed out to her that the cameras showed Don Meredith crying after the game. I was stunned with grief as Jim O'Brien kicked the last-second field goal to win Super Bowl V. I remember like it was yesterday when Bob Lilly chased down Bob Griese and Lance Alworth made a spectactular catch at the sideline just inside the front pylon of the endzone for the the first touchdown of Super Bowl VI. I relished the Cowboys' dismantling of the Broncos in Super Bowl XII, but wished that Craig Morton had won a ring when he was the Dallas QB. Jackie Smith--who I still consider to be the best pass-catching tight end ever--dropping the ball in Super Bowl XIII causes me more pain than Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. I still hate Candlestick Park and the Forty Niners because of "The Catch" (which even I have to admit was probably the greatest catch in NFL history). I stuck with the Cowboys through the decline of Landry's last seasons, Jerry Jones's ham fisted firing of Landry, and that awful 1-15 first season under Jimmy Johnson. Life became wonderful again as the Cowboys became the dominant team of the 90's. Johnson left, Switzer came in, and the Boys still won another Super Bowl, exacting a bit of revenge on the Steelers. Then came the decline of Switzer, followed first by the mediocrity of the Chan Gailey era and then more of the same under Dave Campo (but to be fair, Jerry never let those guys run the team). Even then I was a loyal Cowboys fan. For a long time, I really disliked Jerry Jones. And then I came to respect him once he realized he needed to let someone else run most of the football operation. I came to see and appreciate the good things he had done for the Cowboys.

One more thing...I was in Texas Stadium in 2000 the day t.o. did his TD celebrations on the star at midfield. I have watched--just like everyone else--what a punk ass he has become since then.

And now I have no respect for Jerry Jones.

And now this lifelong Cowboys fan is going to be rooting for a team in New York City.

As long as t.o. is on the team, the Cowboys are dead to me.

Friday, March 17, 2006

Memo: Halliburton failed to protect water in Iraq

That's the headline from an AP report published in the Navy Times. Read it and see just how much the company formerly run by Dick Cheney that has received all kinds of huge contracts via the Iraq war really cares about our troops.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Disagreements among military commanders over the war resurface.

Two media items published this past Monday highlighted disagreements in the opening weeks of the war among the military commanders on the ground and Tommy Franks and Pentagon officials. The New York Times ran an article entitled "Dash to Baghdad Left Top U.S. Generals Divided," and the NBC Nightly News broadcast a report by Andrea Mitchell entitled "New book says U.S. underestimated insurgency."

Here's a summary: As the coalition forces were on the way to Baghdad, intelligence officers and the commanders on the ground said that the Fedayeen and other paramilitary forces, not the Republican Guard, were the major threat and needed to be taken out instead of passing them by and proceeding to Baghdad. However, Tommy Franks and the Pentagon decided otherwise. And that turned out to be a mistake. Both reports contain much more information, so by all means, check them out.

The Times and NBC note that Gen. William Wallace, who was the commander of the Army's V Corps toward Baghdad, publicly made these complaints in late March 2003. As reported by NBC, he almost lost his job because of that. In any event, here is the key quote from Gen. Wallace: "The enemy we're fighting is different from the one we war-gamed against." (See this Newsweek article for the origins of this debate.)

When I first read Wallace's quote back in March 2003, I started extensively researching the matter. I then wrote extensively on the matter--38 pages single-spaced, including footnotes giving all my sources.

I have not worked on that writing since May 19, 2003. Now it is time to do something with that work. I am going to put it on the web on a new site.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

The Daily Show and Paul Hackett

Tonight the Daily Show did a feature on Paul Hackett, and it was brilliant. Hackett totally played along as Ed Helms taught him how to be a candidate turned out by the Democratic machine--emotionless, non-controversial, no backbone.

The segment was not as detailed or full of seething rage and disgust as my rant about what is wrong with the Democratic Party (which was primarily about how Hackett got screwed by the Party), but it was more entertaining and loaded with dead pan sarcasm.

Gee, was it coincidence that this segment ran right after Russ Feingold called the Party a bunch of cowering pansies?

A rare sighting--a Democrat in office with a spine, and his name is Russ Feingold.

Over at Think Progress, there is a post that that shows one of the major problems with the Democratic Party.
Sen. Feingold said the following to Fox News’ Trish Turner:

I’m amazed at Democrats, cowering with this president’s numbers so low. The administration just has to raise the specter of the war and the Democrats run and hide. … Too many Democrats are going to do the same thing they did in 2000 and 2004. In the face of this, they’ll say we’d better just focus on domestic issues. … [Democrats shouldn’t] cower to the argument, that whatever you do, if you question the administration, you’re helping the terrorists.
(emphasis in Think Progress post). Amen, Russ. Who were the Democratic candidates in 2004 who spoke out against the war? Clark, Dean, Kucinich, and Sharpton. Sharpton was treated like a novelty act and his views were disregarded because he realistically was never a contender. Kucinich was portrayed as a benevolent kook, and the criticisms of Dean and Clark were never embraced by the party. As I wrote in A few post-election thoughts and Democrats are not blameless on this issue, Feingold is right.

I feel compelled to remind everyone that Feingold was the only Senator who voted against both the Iraq War Resolution and the USA PATRIOT Act.

If you really want to be entertained, read the comments to the Think Progress post. There are plenty of Democrats who are tired of the cowering done by the Dems in Congress, and the party damn well better start paying attention.

The Democratic Congressional caucus is pretty much gutless, but there are a few exceptions. Feingold is one, and on the House side, I would include Murtha and Kucinich. I might add to this list, but in the meantime, if anyone thinks of some more exceptions, make a comment.

Update on the Sanger article on Bush

This morning I came across this post by Mickey Kaus which questions some of the terms used in David Sanger's March 13 New York Times article (referenced in my previous post). For instance, Kaus says
"pre-emption" and "going it alone" are hardly "isolationist" impulses. They're unilateral non-isolationist impulses, no? So the old direction is non-isolationist. The "new" direction is non-isolationist. What's the big change?
I have to say that Kaus is correct about Bush previously being unilateral and non-isolationist, but if Kaus is implying there has been no change in Bush's policy he is wrong. Before, Bush was all about pre-emption and going it alone, and now he is trying to get help and cooperation from around the world. That is the change, and that is the point of Sanger's article as I read it.

Monday, March 13, 2006

More on the misadventures of Clueless George

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, I went to the New York Times website to see the latest headlines. I came across one that made me laugh 'til I stopped--which was about one third into the article because then I went to anger and then to stunned silence.

The headline: A Bush Alarm: Urging U.S. to Shun Isolationism

Writer David Sanger largely expresses what I was planning to do in any follow up posts to Bush is still clueless about the ports deal, so I will quote some of the choicer passages--and add a few comments of my own.

Sanger's opening paragraph, sprinkled with just the right amount of sarcasm, almost says it all:
The president who made pre-emption and going it alone the watchwords of his first term is quietly turning in a new direction, warning at every opportunity of the dangers of turning the nation inward and isolationist, and making the case for international engagement on issues from national security to global economics.
My comment: flippity-floppity-flip-flop-flip.

Sanger next discusses how Bush is embarking on a PR-tour to generate support for the Iraq war, and points out that
rather than simply delve into the familiar talk about the need to root out terrorists abroad so they cannot strike Americans here, the White House plans to have Mr. Bush expand his discussion of the need for the United States to embrace a new role in the world, even if that means explaining the benefits of globalization to a nation that does not appear to be in a mood to hear that message.

It is yet another change for a man who came to office talking of a "humble foreign policy," and after Sept. 11 used the hammer of the world's sole superpower around the globe.
My comment: To the extent the "nation that does not appear to be in a mood to hear that message," George and his anything but humble foreign policy and the "post 9-11 world" he generated are to blame.

And now for the heart of the matter:
To his critics, the internationalist approach is too little too late — the price Mr. Bush has paid for a foreign policy that seemed relentlessly focused on building defensive walls and hunting enemies.
My comment: I take issue with "the critics" on this point. Bush's current approach is WAY TOO FREAKING LATE. As I have tried to explain before, Bush's attempt to change rather than stay the course is pretty much doomed to failure. The arrogance and stupidity of the Bush administration rendered any attempts at damage control almost impossible close to three years ago, but at this stage of the game, those attempts are simply way too damn late.

And here is the last quote I will use from Sanger:
Now Mr. Bush is moving into a new phase of his presidency, not by choice or natural inclination, it seems, but by necessity.
I am stunned that Bush figured this out at all. Too bad Clueless George and the rest of his administration didn't realize over three years ago that arrogance is not a viable foreign policy, that isolationism is not possible in today's world (and the world over three years ago), and that we cannot succeed in a war on terror or in protecting this country's interests by going it alone.

Sunday, March 12, 2006

Bush is still clueless about the ports deal.

On Friday, Bush appeared before the National Newspaper Association Conference. He addressed many issues, including the ports deal and its collapse. Part of what he said showed once again that Bush is absolutely clueless.
I'm concerned about a broader message this issue could send to our friends and allies around the world, particularly in the Middle East. In order to win the war on terror, we have got to strengthen our relationships and friendships with moderate Arab countries in the Middle East. UAE is a committed ally in the war on terror. They are a key partner for our military in a critical region.
Why was George not worried about the message sent to our friends and allies--and especially to the Middle East--when he basically told the world to f___ off and that we were going to invade Iraq no matter what anybody thought or no matter what the facts were? Why was he not worried about the message he sent to the world when he said in absolute terms that "either you are with us or you are against us"?

Why was George not interested in strengthening our relations with moderate Arab countries before now? Every Arab country was against the Iraq war, but Bush didn't care about their opinions then.

Bush's message to the world in general and to Arabs in particular for the last three years has been about as subtle as a brick in the face, and his vision and foresight has been that of someone who just got a brick in the face.

Notice that I said "Arabs" and not "Arab countries." There is no question that the majority of Arabs have a dim view of the U.S., even if they live in "moderate Arab countries." Some of the "moderate" countries are ruled by autocratic regimes, And, thanks to the Burning Bush Doctrine (a/k/a "freedom on the march"), there have been elections in Arab countries that have produced gains for parties openly hostile to American interests and the governments of some of those countries. Good luck making friends with them, George. You cannot turn away from them, nor can you win them over by keeping ruling regimes in place while you are saying that democracy is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I really think that Bush does not grasp any of this.


Saturday, March 11, 2006

You just can't make this stuff up--Bush's former top domestic policy adviser arrested.

Right after I published the previous post, I decided to check some news before finally going to bed. I went first to Talking Points Memo, and saw this post. After picking my jaw off the floor, I read some newspaper articles about the arrest of Bush's former domestic policy adviser, Claude Allen.

Here's the story of the charges and Allen's political career in the Bush administration as described by the Talking Points Memo post and articles from the AP, CNN, and the Washington Post. According to the statement issued by the local police, Allen was ripping off two department stores by first buying items, taking them to his car, then going back in the stores with the receipts, taking identical items off the shelves, going to the returns department, presenting the receipts, and getting cash refunds. The Washington Post provided some of the details of the allegations:
He came to the attention of Montgomery police after a manager at a Gaithersburg Target store called the department about an incident Jan. 2. Montgomery detectives were able to document other alleged crimes from Oct. 29 to Jan. 2, some of which were captured on camera, (police spokesman Lt. Eric) Burnett said.
*******
Burnett said Montgomery police contacted the White House to verify Allen's identity after the Jan. 2 incident. He said that was the extent of their communication with the administration. He said he could not immediately determine the date of that contact, or whether police informed the White House that Allen had been charged Jan. 2 and was still under investigation.
*******
This is what police said happened Jan. 2:

Employees at the Target store at 25 Grand Corner Ave. in Gaithersburg spotted Allen putting merchandise in a shopping bag. He then walked over to the guest services desk, produced a receipt and received a refund for the items.

After getting the refund, Allen left the store without paying for additional merchandise in his shopping cart.

A store employee stopped him, and police were called to the store. Officers issued a citation charging him with theft under $500 but did not arrest him. Court records show prosecutors dropped the misdemeanor charge, which is not unusual in cases in which detectives are considering filing more serious charges.

Detectives from the county's retail crime unit soon learned that the incident was not an isolated event, Burnett said.

He said investigators were able to document 25 fraudulent refunds for items including a Bose home theater system, stereo equipment, clothes, a photo printer and items worth as little as $2.50.
What makes this story interesting, however, is Allen's history in the Bush administration. Because of his views on social issues (for example, Allen was a major advocate of abstinence-only AIDS prevention programs), Allen "had long been a darling among the conservative right" (according to CNN). In 2003, Allen was the second-highest ranking official at the Department of Human Services, and then Bush nominated him to be a judge on the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals. That nomination was successfully blocked by Democrats (thank goodness). At the start of Bush's second term, Allen was chosen to be Bush's top adviser on domestic policy. The Washington Post reported that
As Bush's top domestic policy aide, he frequently briefed the president and traveled with him on Air Force One, and he sat in first lady Laura Bush's box during the president's State of the Union address Jan. 31. Two days, later he traveled with the president to Minnesota, briefing reporters about Bush's education and alternative energy proposals.
Allen resigned on February 9, 2006, and the only explanation given was that he wanted to spend more time with his family. Yeah, right. I'm sure the White House being notified in January that Allen was under investigation for criminal activity had nothing to do with his resignation.

How in the world did this guy advance so far in Bush's administration?

It is also worth noting that Allen is not alone in his status as a former high-ranking Bush administration official under criminal investigation. In September of 2005, David Safavian was the chief of staff of the General Services Administration, which made him the official in charge of procurement and establishing purchasing policy for entire federal government. He resigned on the day a criminal indictment was signed against him, alleging that he repeatedly made false statements to investigators in the Abramoff case. Three days later he was arrested. Moreover, federal prosecutors in Miami one month earlier had issued an indictment on Safavian for wire fraud and conspiracy. For more details, see this Washington Post article. And let us not forget about Scooter Libby.

Katrina and FEMA: what Brown said was wrong and what he tried to do

Overview

When Mike Brown testified before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security on February 10, 2006, he claimed that there were multiple problems within the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA which in part caused the failings in the federal response to Katrina. Bush administration apologists have said that Brown was trying to blame others for his poor performance and that Brown's criticisms were inaccurate. The problem for the apologists is that there is plenty of evidence to support Brown's claims.

What Brown told Senators

I obtained the transcript to Brown's February 10 testimony from the New York Times website. CNN also has most of the transcript, as does the Washington Post.

Brown's opening statement expressed his theme:
In 1989, a congressman wrote a letter to The Washington Times, and that letter said that there is a fatal flaw if we separate preparedness from response. That congressman's name was Tom Ridge. We reached that fatal flaw in 2003, when FEMA was folded into the Department of Homeland Security.
*******
Madame Chairman, I tell you that what occurred after FEMA was folded into the Department of Homeland Security -- there was a culture clash which didn't recognize the absolute inherent science of preparing for a disaster, responding to it, mitigating against future disasters, and recovering from disasters.

And anytime that you break that cycle of preparing, responding, recovering and mitigating, you are doomed to failure. And the policies and the decisions that were implemented by DHS take FEMA on a path to failure, and I think the evidence that we'll have before you today will show the actions that were taken that caused that failure.
Later Brown explained that he felt natural disaster response had been marginalized by DHS in favor of focusing on terrorism:
It's my belief that had there been a report come out from Marty Bahamonde that said, yes, we've confirmed that a terrorist has blown up the 17th Street Canal Levee, then everybody would have jumped all over that and been trying to do everything they could; but because this was a natural disaster, that has become the stepchild within the Department of Homeland Security, and so you now have these two systems operating -- one which cares about terrorism, and FEMA and our state and local partners, who are trying to approach everything from all hazards. And so there's this disconnect that exists within the system that we've created because of DHS. All they had to do was to listen to those VTCs and pay attention to these VTCs, and they would have known what was going on. And in fact, I e-mailed a White House official that evening about how bad it was, making sure that they knew, again, how bad that it was, identifying that we were going to have environmental problems and housing problems and all of those kinds of problems. So it doesn't surprise me that DHS officials would say, well, we weren't aware, you know, they're off doing other things, it's a natural disaster, so we're just going to allow FEMA to do all of that. That had become the mentality within the department.
CNN accurately summarized Brown's views as follows:
In three hours of testimony, Brown argued he faced structural problems stemming from FEMA being made a part of the Department of Homeland Security, which President Bush created after the September 11, 2001, attacks.

Brown contended the reorganization created a bureaucratic nightmare that left a chain of responsibility unclear and set up roadblocks preventing quick action.
Moreover, as will be explained below, Brown did try to find out the problems within FEMA and DHS and implement changes. Brown testified what happened after he presented the results of an independent review of FEMA to his bosses: "We were never given the money. We were never given the resources. We were never given the opportunity to implement any of those recommendations."

A few of the Senators--chiefly Norm Coleman--tried to show that Brown really was to blame by not following procedures, not being proactive, etc. Brown did admit some mistakes and shortcomings, but he also defended himself and pointed out a good deal of evidence to support his defense.

Exhibit 1: concerns of FEMA veterans expressed to Brown

In her opening statement for the hearing, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, stated the following:
In the year or so preceding Katrina, Mr. Brown was presented with two important and highly critical assessments of FEMA's structure and capabilities. Both included recommendations for improvement.

The first was a memorandum produced by a cadre of FEMA's top professional operatives, known as the federal coordinating officers. Among other things, the memo warns of unprepared emergency response teams that had no funding -- zero funding -- for training, exercises.
(emphasis added). As Collins pointed out later, this memo from the FCOs was presented in 2004. The fact that there was no funding for training exercises supports Brown's claim that FEMA was not given priority by DHS.

Collins further described the content of the memo:
I also mention that earlier, in 2004, that a group of senior FEMA operational professionals, the federal coordinating officers cadre, wrote to you a memo outlining their grave concerns. The memo cautions of unprepared teams and zero funding for training exercises and team equipment. It is -- suggested reestablishing a single response and recovery division at FEMA to facilitate the refocusing that is necessary to regain some of the efficiency that has been lost at FEMA.
Brown testified that he asked for the FCOs to draft that memo. Thus, there is evidence that Brown was aware of major problems at FEMA and was seeking input and recommendations from people more qualified than himself.

The memo from the FCOs was the first assesment referenced by Collins. Let's take a look at the second.

The MITRE study

After receiving the FCOs' memo, Brown commissioned an independent study by the MITRE Corporation, a private, not-for-profit group that does a great deal of research and analysis for various federal agencies.

As reported by CNN,
Then-FEMA director Mike Brown commissioned the study because, he recently told Senate investigators, he recognized the agency had problems responding to the 2004 hurricanes in Florida, even though FEMA was generally praised for its work.

"I wanted to find out what was causing those glitches and those problems so we could fix it, so that we really could live up to the reputation that we had, because behind the curtain, it wasn't all that pretty," Brown told Senate investigators in remarks obtained by CNN. "I mean, our logistics just sucked. It was awful."
Once again, here is evidence that before Katrina, Brown knew there were problems and was trying to address those problems.

The MITRE study was delivered in March 2005. Sen. Collins read the study's summary into the record:
Unclear lines of responsibility lead to inconsistent accountability. There is no deputy to you (Brown) with operational experience, and there are too many political appointees. Not enough senior management emergency experts. Lack of adequate and consistent situational awareness across the enterprise.
CNN highlighted other comments from the study:
* "No one's in charge. Everybody's in charge."

* "The political appointees don't understand business, can't made [sic] policy decisions, and are driven by politics and the latest news clips."

* "If the White House asks, 'Where are the water trucks?' I can't tell them."
All right. So Brown had two reports by March 2005 that there were major problems at FEMA. So what did he do about it? That answer is forthcoming, but before that, there is another assessment of FEMA that must be examined.

The GAO report

On February 1, 2006, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued "Statement by Comptroller General David M. Walker on GAO's Preliminary Observations Regarding Preparedness and Response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita." The full preliminary report was issued on March 8, 2006, but here I will show excerpts from the February 1 statement only, specifically those dealing with leadership and organization.
First, prior to a catastrophic event, the leadership roles, responsibilities, and lines of authority for the response at all levels must be clearly defined and effectively communicated in order to facilitate rapid and effective decision making, especially in preparing for and in the early hours and days after the event. As we recommended in 1993, we continue to believe that a single individual directly responsible and accountable to the President must be designated to act as the central focal point to lead and coordinate the overall federal response in the event of a major catastrophe. This person would work on behalf of the President to ensure that federal agencies treat the catastrophe as a top priority and that the federal government’s response is both timely and effective. In cases where there is warning, such as the high probability of a major hurricane (e.g., a category 4 or 5), the senior official should be designated prior to the event, be deployed appropriately, and be ready to step forward as events unfold. Neither the DHS Secretary nor any of his designees, such as the Principal Federal Official (PFO), filled this leadership role during Hurricane Katrina, which serves to underscore the immaturity of and weaknesses relating to the current national response framework.
(emphasis added). Well, this excerpt merely says that no one filled the strong leadership role that was needed, right? Not exactly. It point blank calls the national response framework developed under DHS immature and weak. That supports Brown's claims. The second excerpt shows the failings of Brown's boss, Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff:
No one was designated in advance to lead the overall federal response in anticipation of the event despite clear warnings from the National Hurricane Center. Furthermore, events unfolded both before and immediately after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina that made it clear that governmental entities did not act decisively or quickly enough to determine the catastrophic nature of the incident. For example, the DHS Secretary designated Hurricane Katrina as an incident of national significance on August 30th—the day after final landfall. However, he did not designate the storm as a catastrophic event, which would have triggered additional provisions of the National Response Plan (NRP), calling for a more proactive response. As a result, the federal posture generally was to wait for the affected states to request assistance.
(emphasis added). Keep in mind that FEMA used to be a separate, cabinet-level agency prior to the creation of DHS. After that time, FEMA was made part of DHS, which meant that Brown, as FEMA director, was subordinate to Chertoff. In other words, any designation of leadership had to be done by Chertoff, not Brown. And Chertoff seemingly did not know just what he was supposed to do. And now for the good stuff...
Although the DHS Secretary designated a PFO to be the federal government’s representative under the NRP structure and to coordinate the federal response, the efforts of all federal agencies involved in the response remained disjointed because the PFO’s leadership role was unclear. In the absence of timely and decisive action and clear leadership responsibility and accountability, there were multiple chains of command, a myriad of approaches and processes for requesting and providing assistance, and confusion about who should be advised of requests and what resources would be provided within specific time frames.
The GAO found pretty much all the problems identified by the FCOs' memo and the MITRE study, AND it identified serious problems in the job that Chertoff did (or rather did not do).

Thus, there is evidence showing that serious problems existed before Katrina, that Brown had identified them, and that those problems went unresolved by the time Katrina hit. This still leaves the question as to what Brown did before Katrina to address these problems.

Apparently, Brown was ignored.

After speaking of the FCOs' memo and the MITRE study, Collins addressed Brown.
SEN. COLLINS: We've received testimony that in response to both of these warnings, which were very explicit in identifying serious problems within FEMA, that you did not take any action. My first question for you is, what action did you take in response to the warnings from the senior career people and the outside consultant?

MR. BROWN: ...As I said, we had to fight to get the money just to do the MITRE study. Once we received the MITRE study, we were in the process of trying to figure out how to complete that, get that into a document that would say, here's what we need to do, A, B, C, so I could present that to Secretary Ridge and then Secretary Chertoff to implement those. We were never given the money. We were never given the resources. We were never given the opportunity to implement any of those recommendations.

SEN. COLLINS: So you're testifying that you were rebuffed in your efforts to remedy these problems by the Department of Homeland Security. Did you ever discuss these concerns about budget authority, organization, personnel, with individuals at the White House?

MR. BROWN: Yes, ma'am, I did.

SEN. COLLINS: And with whom did you discuss those concerns?

MR. BROWN: I discussed these concerns with several members of the president's senior staff.

SEN. COLLINS: And would you identify with whom you discussed those concerns?
*******
SEN. COLLINS: (Laughs, laughter.) I asked you with whom you talked at the White House about the budget authority and personnel problems that you perceived were hindering your ability to carryout your mission.

MR. BROWN: At various times, I had conversations with the deputy White House chief of staff, Josh Bolten, before he moved over to OMB, and I had numerous conversations with Deputy White House Chief of Staff Joe Hagin and occasionally conversations with Chief of Staff Andy Card. I've also had conversations with both former White House Homeland Security adviser General John Gordon and with current Homeland Security adviser Fran Townsend.
So, Brown not only solicited frank assessments from FEMA professionals and an independent organization, he did try to get problems rectified and changes made. However, his pleas were ignored by the Bush administration.

Ain't that grand?

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Summary of a reevaluation of Mike Brown and Katrina--via Josh Marshall

Over at Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall has two posts which nicely summarize the reevalution of Mike Brown. On March 4, Josh wrote the following:
...I've been getting emails from folks on the inside at FEMA, people who worked with him and observed him firsthand when he was leading the agency.

The verdict seems pretty clear: None of them thought he was qualified for the position. But each also had the clear impression that he took his job seriously, learned a lot while he was there and -- perhaps most importantly -- was a big improvement over Joe Allbaugh, President Bush's fixer whom he succeeded as head of the agency.
The day before, Josh had a lengthy post in which he pointed out that while Brown certainly deserves criticism, Brown has shown that others who have previously ducked taking real responsibility deserve more blame than they have so far received:
I don't think there's any use or reason to reconsider the conclusion that Brown was manifestly unqualified to be the head of the country's emergency management agency or that he found himself in that job because of his longtime friendship with Joe Allbaugh, one of the president's fixers. He was either guilty of or implicated in various other instances of ridiculousness. He was a poster-child for the administration's essential lack of interest in effective government, as an aim of public service distinct from consolidating political power and paying off political supporters out of the public fisc. Also, for us critics, to the extent there is a Brownie redemption afoot, it is in large part because the same guy many of us lambasted six months ago is now flattering our assumptions about how this administration works.

Still, in this and so many other cases, our assumptions, always based on a lot of factual evidence, are being borne out in spades. And Brown is coming forward with a decent amount of evidence that even if he wasn't the guy who should have had the job, and even if he made plenty of mistakes during Katrina, he wasn't just bumbling along unaware anything serious was happening. If inept and blameworthy himself he seems clearly to have understood the magnitude of the catastrophe that was afoot and took steps to deal with it.

He also is coming forward with what appears to be a decent paper trail showing he had some sense and gave warnings about FEMA's degradation and decline under the consolidated DHS. No one listen[ed].

I can't see glorifying Michael Brown. He shouldn't have been in the job. He screwed up in a lot of different ways. He then carried the administration's water in trying to pin the blame on the locals, what must be a mortal sin in a FEMA Director. But he does get some credit for coming clean now and spilling at least some of the beans. And the beans he's spilled so far show that he's hardly the most blameworthy figure in the administration's shameful and pitiful response to the disaster that befell the Gulf Coast.
(emphasis added). Coming up--a review of the "paper trail" and other evidence.

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Upcoming further look at Katrina, Bush, and Brown--and an apology to Mike Brown

When Mike Brown last testified before Congress, I started working on a review and revision of his role and performance in the Katrina disaster. Since then, there has been a great deal of additional information disclosed which further shows that the Bush administration cannot simply be truthful about anything.

While I am still working on various posts on this matter, I want to present an apology to Mike Brown. In Mike is Brown and sounds like a bell, I was highly (to put it mildly) critical of Brown. While Brown still deserves some criticism, what has come out since his initial Congressional testimony shows that he did not and does not deserve the absolute villification dished out by me.

What has come out since his initial testimony does show that Bush, Chertoff, and DHS deserve much more blame than they first received. Bush and Chertoff willingly and gladly set up Brown to be the fall guy, and they hung him out to dry. Why am I not surprised?

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Texas Independence Day

As I noted on this day last year, "Today is Texas Independence Day. On March 2, 1836, Texas became an independent sovereign nation."

The first president of the Republic of Texas was Sam Houston. When Texas became part of the U.S., he served as a U.S. Senator from 1846-1859. He then ran for Governor as an independent and won. That was the first and last time Texas had a governor not affiliated with a political party. Here's hoping the next one is Kinky Friedman.

Remember the Alamo! Remember Goliad! And Happy Birthday, Texas!

Iraq breeds terrorism.

Check out the "Iraq and the war on terror" section of Brent Scowcroft speaks out--Part 1.


Follow-up analysis of the "throe away" insurgency post

The previous post explained that 1) the insurgency in Iraq is and always has been a homegrown phenomenon, meaning the insurgency does not consist primarily of foreign fighters; 2) the insurgency is driven by issues unique to Iraq, not global terrorism; 3) the Bush administration has been told of these matters since October 2003, and 4) the Bush administration has simply refused to accept these assessments because they do not comport with its views.

So what does all this mean? For starters, it means that most of the people we are fighting against are Iraqis, not members of Al Qaeda or other terrorists from outside Iraq. It means that the whole mantra of "We're fighting the terrorists over there so we don't have to fight them here" is bogus. And that means that yet another of the Bush administration's major explanations as to why we went to and are still in Iraq crumbles under the weight of facts.

And another thing...the whole "We're fighting the terrorists over there so we don't have to fight them here" meme is just bullshit. Assume for the moment that the Bush administration is correct in saying that we are primarily fighting foreign terrorists in Iraq. On April 30, 2005, I published a post about the Minuteman Project and Homeland Security in which I stated the following:
My previous post about the Minuteman Project pointed out that some of the participants have a concern over homeland security. And one of them, Tim Donnelly, asked "what the hell are we going to Iraq for?" Well, George his own self keeps saying over and over that "We're fighting the terrorists there so we don't have to fight them here." Bush's statement has some serious irony. See, since we have almost all of our military tied up in Iraq, and since we have spent and continue to spend billions upon billions of dollars because of Iraq, it's not so much a case of us not having to fight any terrorists here as not being able to do so. Moreover, there just might be plenty of terrorists in a country that is much closer to our borders than Iraq. More specifically, I am talking about a country much closer to our southern border.
That country is Venezuela, but that is another story.

Also, keep in mind that prior to the war, Iraq was NOT involved in 9-11 and Iraq did NOT have any meaningful ties to Al Qaeda. There is evidence that Iraq did have some ties to terrorists, but those terrorists were based in the Middle East and had Middle East objectives. In other words, they were no threat to America. What this means is that if indeed we are mostly fighting terrorists that pose a threat to the U.S. in Iraq, they did not get to Iraq until AFTER the war started. And now we are doing two things to aid those terrorists: 1) providing them with training they could not possibly get anywhere else, and 2) keeping our resources tied up in one area which means we cannot commit resources elsewhere (see paragraph from Minuteman post above).

Furthermore, the terrorists are under no obligation to stay in Iraq, whereas we are. If all the terrorists left Iraq tomorrow, we would still have to stay there, and we would still have to be pouring billions of dollars into the effort. The terrorists--fresh off their live combat training--could leave Iraq and then come to the U.S., or they could establish bases in places like Venezuela. And where would our military be? Iraq. Where would all the money needed to truly provide for Homeland Security be? Iraq.

And yet another thing...the war in Iraq has aided, not damaged, terrorism, as shown in the next post.