I did not see that coming...

The Supremes upheld the individual mandate of the PPACA in a 5-4 decision.  I am not surprised by either of the facts stated in the previous sentence.  However, there are at least two other facts which I did not see coming at all.  First, the majority opinion was written by Chief Justice Roberts, who turned out to be the swing vote.  Second--and far more significant--the individual mandate was ruled to be a tax and thus expressly authorized under Congress's enumerated powers in the Constitution.

Here are two quotes from Roberts's opinion:

The individual mandate cannot be upheld as an exercise of Congress’s power under the Commerce Clause. That Clause authorizes Congress to regulate interstate commerce, not to order individuals to engage in it.

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[I]t is reasonable to construe what Congress has done as increasing taxes on those who have a certain amount of income, but (who) choose to go without health insurance. Such legislation is within Congress’s power to tax.

So, I was right about one prediction--that the individual mandate would not be upheld on the basis of the Commerce Clause because that clause alone did not apply to the mandate--but I was wrong that such basis would be the Necessary and Proper Clause.

Instead, Roberts chose to avoid the truly major issue--the Necessary and Proper Clause--by ruling that the individual mandate is a tax.  Although I did not see that coming, it does make sense.  This approach seems like it addresses a major concern of mine, namely making any decision in this case a narrow one.  Trying to draft a narrow decision based on the Commerce and/or Necessary and Proper Clause was going to be a HUGE challenge, regardless of the outcome.  Roberts neatly dodged that problem.  Also, by ruling that the individual mandate is a tax, Roberts effectively put an end to any further Constitutional challenge--especially by strict constructionists--because the Constitution expressly gives the Congress the authority to tax.

Now, as to how this ruling might affect future cases (as in just what will be a tax or not and how that will impact everything), I have no idea, but I bet things will get interesting.  However, I don't as of yet see the potential for chaos that I have discussed before.