The Texas primary--and a reminder from Molly Ivins

The Texas primary takes place on March 4.

This primary is particularly important because for the first time in a long time, it will mean something. Usually by the time of the Texas primary, the race for the nomination is pretty much over. Not so this time, and for the first time in my voting life, my vote in the primary might actually mean something.

Texas has 228 delegates, and the primary will go a long way in determining how they are divided between Obama and Hillary (delegate totals will not be finally determined until the State Convention in June), and that means the Texas primary could play a significant role in determining who ultimately gets the nomination.

I really don't have a good feel for how the voting might go, but I do know one thing: I will vote for Barack Obama.

And even though I am not sure how the voting will go, some poll results are interesting.

According to this site, in November and December Hillary had a 51%-17% lead over Obama. Then in January, Hillary led 46%-28%. And in the poll taken at the end of January, Hillary led 48%-38%. Methinks there is a trend here.

Here are some notes from that last poll:

November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%. Mike Gravel received 3% while 12% were undecided. Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos. In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1. Edwards was at 5% among Latinos in the January 10 poll, so Obama's gain cannot be completely explained by his departure. There is a significant gender gap as Latino men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

(emphasis added). Latinos have been among Hillary's biggest voters so far. She basically won Nevada because of the Latino vote. The fact that Obama appears to be gaining ground with Latinos in Texas could be very significant. There could be a trend going against Obama, however, among African-Americans.

Obama's support among African-Americans actually dipped slightly as the number of undecided women increased. Obama still has a large lead 55-21, with 24% undecided.

At the same time, Obama gained more support among whites.

Both candidates gained among white voters with Edwards departure. Obama gained eight points while Clinton gained five. I can't distinguish between former Edwards voters and prior movement, but my best guess would be that it was a combination of the two. Undecided was also up two points.

And now for the gender breakdown:

Clinton's support was even between men and women, but Obama had seven points higher support among men. Women were seven points more likely to be undecided.

To all the undecideds, women, and all Democrats that consider themselves Texan and liberal (and there are plenty of them here), I remind you of a few things.

There was no one that was more liberal and at the same time Texan than Molly Ivins.

And Even Molly Ivins didn't want Hillary.