Sunday, January 06, 2008

Today's New Hampshire polls are in, and Hillary cannot be happy.

I, on the other hand, am practically giddy. Last night, I closed by saying that perhaps last night's debate would impact today's poll numbers. What I meant was that maybe Hillary's numbers would go up after last night. Boy, was I wrong.

The overall situation is presented at TPM Election Central.

Here's the highlight:
The new CNN/University of New Hampshire poll, conducted yesterday and early today, shows that Barack Obama has enjoyed a massive post-Iowa bounce, and now leads Hillary Clinton by ten points. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll that came out only yesterday:

Obama 39% (+6)
Clinton 29% (-4)
Edwards 16% (-4)
Richardson 7% (+3)
Bear in mind, this jump for Obama occurred after only one day. Furthermore, the University of New Hampshire poll is among the most respected for the NH primary, according by Mark Blumenthal. So this isn't some fringe survey, known for errors, but a very credible one.
(emphasis added). And all the other polls tracked by TPM show Obama in the lead.

I can't wait to see the polls tomorrow.

As for why Hillary did not get a boost from last night's debate, here's another TPM Election Central post giving a summary of the debate plus a link to focus group done after the debate. As Greg Sargent described it,
Here's a post-debate focus group by Frank Luntz that finds that Obama won the "change" argument -- and that voters found Hillary to be "dogmatic," "angry, "on the defensive"...
(emphasis added). Gee, what a surprise. The veneer is wearing off after exposure to an actual challenge, and now people are finally starting to realize Hillary's true nature.


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