Miers withdraws her nomination. Now what?

I got up this morning, let the dog out, toasted a bagel, brewed some coffee, and tuned my TV to MSNBC, and the first thing I see is "Harriet Miers withdraws Supreme Court nomination." That was just what I needed the morning after the less than satisfying end to the World Series.

So, now what? The last thing I want to see is a Scalia or Thomas clone get nominated. However, I want to stress again my philosophy as to the Supremes. As I explained the day O'Connor resigned,

My view of the U.S. Supreme Court as an institution is that it should not be dominated by one group. There must be a balance of some sort. For instance, three conservatives, three liberals, and three that are somewhere in the middle constitutes a balance. O'Connor became one of the voices in the middle, and what concerns me--and scares me--is that Bush has no interest in appointing someone in the middle. He is not at all interested in maintining any kind of balance. He wants someone who will carry out the winger agenda, and that is a bad thing. See, if Scalia had resigned, I would not have a problem with Bush appointing someone like Scalia. As much as I dislike him as a judge (and boy, do I ever), Scalia nonetheless fulfills an important role on the Court as a balance to the sure enough liberals. Thus, I would like to see O'Connor replaced by someone closer to the center, but I have little hope Bush will do that.

The problem now is that there is at least a 95% probability Bush will absolutely lose his base if he does not appoint a hard core right winger. On the other hand, if he appoints an ideologue (even a very qualified one), there is at least a 95% probabilty there will be an all out war with the Democrats (and at this point, there is no way to predict how that would turn out).

I will say again that I hope the nominee is not Priscilla Owen. For those who need an explanation on this matter, read The Senate should reject Priscilla Owen and Priscilla Owen: compassionate conservative or...?

I also hope that Janice Rogers Brown does not get the nomination.

Before making a initial analysis of who the nominee might be, I want to talk about Harry Reid. Overall, I, as a Democrat, think Reid has done a good job as Minority Leader in the Senate. However, his actions in the Miers nomination--including his comments this morning--have made me unhappy. For him to have recommended that someone as utterly unqualified as Miers be nominated either shows he is a very wily politician (trying to set up Bush to make a mistake) or he is a dumbass. And this morning he attributed the failure of the nomination to the "radical right wing" of the GOP. As much as I love to ridicule the "radical right wing," the truth is that many groups opposed this nomination, and the overwhelming reason for that opposition was Miers's glaringly obvious lack of qualifications for the job.

So, who's next? Here is a short discussion. Edith Jones is a good bet. She is very conservative, highly qualified, and she is a woman. However, she will certainly cause much consternation among the Democrats. Ted Olson is another good possibility, as he is very much like John Roberts. But will Olson satisfy the conservative base? Michael Luttig is another good possibility-- conservative, young, former clerk for Scalia. Samuel Alito is known as "Scalito." Enough said. Michael McConnell is a current judge and big time Constitutional scholar who is anti-abortion, but he is also a free-thinker who might be viewed by conservatives as another possible Souter.

The problem for Bush is that he has no good will and political capital among his conservative base. That means he cannot play the "trust me" card. That raises problems for Bush on both sides of the aisle, for the more he satisfies his base, the more he risks huge opposition from the Democrats.

Looking for a darkhorse candidate? Keep an eye on John Cornyn. If Bush personally asks Cornyn to leave the Senate to go to the Supremes, Cornyn would likely do so.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall has an excellent post describing the problems Bush faces now.