Sunday, February 18, 2007

And now Bush remembers Afghanistan.

On January 17, 2007, I noted that Bush, in the course of explaining the "surge" in Iraq, stated that Al Qaeda would not be allowed to establish in Iraq a safe have like they had in Afghanistan. At the time I thus found it rather ironic that Bush had ordered that some of the surge in Iraq would be provided by taking a combat brigade out of Afghanistan. I detailed that irony three days later in a post entitled "Anybody Remember Afghanistan?" That post discussed how the Taliban--who provided Al Qaeda's safe haven--was never completely removed because of resources going to the Iraq war and is now staging a comeback via an armed insurgency. In light of that insurgency, I was only one of many who wondered why a combat brigade would be taken out of Afghanistan at this time.

Almost a month later, good ol' George finally remembered Afghanistan. He held a press conference on February 15, 2007, and he said this about Afghanistan:
So our strategy in this country is robust and important. A lot of attention here in the United States is on Iraq. One reason I've come to address you is I want to make sure people's attention is also on Afghanistan.
Listen up, George...The attention of you and your incompetent administration has been on Iraq to an obsessive and destructive (to U.S. interests) degree. Moreover, while I would like for "people's" attention to be also on Afghanistan, it is primarily you and your administration that need to focus attention on Afghanistan. And I am not convinced that you are truly doing that in spite of other things you said on February 15.

Here's what Bush said he was going to do for Afghanistan:
I'm asking Congress for $11.8 billion over the next two years to help this young democracy survive. I've ordered an increase in U.S. forces in Afghanistan. We've extended the stay of 3,200 troops now in the country, for four months, and we'll deploy a replacement force that will sustain this increase for the foreseeable future.
I'm confused...First Bush orders to take troops out of Afghanistan, then four weeks later decides to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. So why take troops out in the first place? I think a possible reason is purely political. As I discussed in the two previous posts cited above, the surge was all about making a showing for political reasons. It had nothing to do with strategic ( as in military) considerations. It was about trying to make Bush look like he was taking charge and doing something and finding a scapegoat for down the road. In order to make that showing, troops had to come from somewhere quickly, and that meant taking them out of Afghanistan. Then after people started questioning that move, Bush realized that he had a problem in Afghanistan and had to do something to make it look like he was addressing that situation.

And what does this troop increase in Afghanistan mean for the surge in Iraq? Is the combat brigade taken out of Afghanistan going to go back to Afghanistan? If so, where are the troops for the Iraq surge going to come from? If that combat brigade stays in Iraq, where are the additional troops for Afghanistan going to come from? And are the additional troops--be they part of the Iraq surge or the Afghanistan increase--going to be properly trained and equipped for combat in whichever theater they are serving? This is an important question for two reasons. First, our troops in Iraq still are not getting the equipment they need (another story for another time). Second, Iraq and Afghanistan present two very different combat environments. The surge in Iraq is focused on urban and desert conditions. The battle in Afghanistan is largely in villages and mountainous environments. Those are not the same. So why take a combat brigade with actual experience in and knowledge of Afghanistan and put it in a completely different environment? And then why send fresh troops that do not have such experience and knowledge to Afghanistan? That makes no sense. And if the combat brigade from Afghanistan that was going to Iraq is now sent back to Afghanistan, why was it ordered to Iraq in the first freakin' place?

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