Another explanation why military action against Iran is a bad idea right now

Gregory Djerejian has a post on his site, The Belgravia Dispatch, which presents some good analysis on whether military action against Iran is a good idea. After setting out examples of how the Bush administration and the winger media are saying the same kinds of things now about Iran that they said about Iraq, Djerejian writes the following:

Yeah, methinks it could all happen again, even with so much unfinished business on the Administration's plate. Iraq is in a hugely perilous state and the situation in Afghanistan (and parts of Pakistan) is very problematic (by the way, where are Osama bin Laden and Zawahiri?). So please be patient with me, over the coming weeks, as I seek to bring the temperature down on Iran policy musings a degree or two. Look, a military strike on Iran might ultimately prove necessary, especially if Ahmadi-Nejad is in power at the time Iran is actually about to get a nuclear weapon. His aggressive rhetoric must be taken seriously, and we very likely cannot risk a nuclear Iran led by such an unstable leader. But an Iran led by another less radical regime could be a different story, especially given positive demographic trends that point to a more moderate generation in the wings.

The bottom line is that military action against Iran, if it comes, must be pursued only after the situation in neighboring countries is more stable (Iraq, Afghanistan), only after diplomatic avenues (and non-military punitive actions like freezing the assets of regime leaders and blocking key regime figures travel) have been pursued to the utmost, only when we have unimpeachable intelligence that Iran is truly on the cusp of wielding a nuclear weapon, and always, with all due consideration being given to the nature of the regime that is actually in power at the time the country is about to go nuclear. Until then, look for this blog to be concerned about the chances of another ill-considered, overly precipitous action in the region, especially given the incompetent civilian leadership currently in place at the Pentagon. And, no, I don't derive too much comfort from the Administration's protests that such an attack is not in the offing. Better to monitor going-ons rather closely, I'd think. As the old saying goes, trust but verify...with emphasis on the verification prong.

I look forward to Djerejian's thoughts over the coming weeks.