Sectarian violence that could tear apart Iraq--who knew?

The answer is "Everyone except the Bush administration."

Time for a refresher course. Back on September 30, 2004, I published a post entitled Wolfowitz's Reason 3 why Shinseki was wrong. "Reason 3" referred to one of the reasons Wolfowitless gave to Congress as to why Gen. Eric Shinseki's testimony that it would take several hundred thousand troops to adequately take care of the post war period in Iraq was "wildly off the mark." Reason 3 was that there was no history of ethnic strife in Iraq. In the course of completely trashing Reason 3, I quoted many other people who made their views and evidence known before the war. Here are some highlights that directly address the potential for sectarian strife.

Highlight 1

Anthony Cordesmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said this in early March, 2003:

The possibility of ethnic fighting, with Turkish and Iranian complications, cannot be dismissed. There are major tribal and clan fault lines. There are serious Arab-Kurd-Turcoman-Assyrian fault lines. There are Sunni vs. Shi'ite fault lines, and deep fault lines within the Kurdish and Shi'ite populations plus problems like the Iraq-armed Iranian MEK and Iranian-armed Iraqi Badr Brigades. There are cities, agricultural area, and oil to fight over and there are real questions about revenge killings.

(emphasis added).

Highlight 2

The final group of general statements comes from "Iraq Backgrounder: What Lies Beneath," an October 1, 2002, report from the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Indeed, many tensions between opposition groups derive from deeper fault-lines that pre-date Saddam Hussein and are likely to survive him. These divides are principally along religious, ethnic and tribal lines, though class and ideology should not be neglected.

*******

After decades of power imbalance and discrimination, Shiites may seek to settle scores with Sunnis. Ethnic inequities and unresolved political and economic issues could ignite tensions and provoke violence between Kurds, Arabs, and Turkomans.

(italics in original post, bold added in this post)

Highlight 3

Revenge killings based on religious and tribal connections...Well, that might be strife, but it certainly isn't ethnic strife, now is it? So, maybe there was no history of ethnic strife in north and south Iraq, but what about the central region? From the Wall Street Journal:

The U.S.-led coalition would encounter some of its toughest challenges in the center of Iraq -- in Baghdad and across the heartland occupied by the minority Sunni Muslim population. There the Sunni elite would find themselves threatened as they haven't been since the British took the region away from the Ottoman Turks after World War I. Although Sunni Muslims make up no more than 18% of Iraq's population, they have dominated the country's affairs for centuries. From their ranks have come not only Mr. Hussein but also a long line of sheiks, monarchs and strongmen stretching back through British rule to the administrations of the Ottoman Turks. Sunnis play crucial roles in operating the country day to day, from holding key positions in its military to overseeing public services such as water and health care.

Highlight 4

And speaking of religious differences, anyone who has done even meager study of Islam knows that these branches of Islam have been deeply divided and antagonistic for hundreds of years. As the ICG put it:

There is little doubt that a religious schism exists and dates back to the earliest days of Islam when what is now Iraq served as a battle ground for many of the seminal events that have defined the Sunni-Shiite division. The ascendancy of Sunnis during the Ottoman period was perpetuated in modern Iraq, and Sunni political figures and officers have held a disproportionate share of power since independence.

*******

During the 1990s, the rift between Sunnis and Shiites deepened, and overall religious tensions intensified.

Gee...a dispute that goes back centuries and has been fought primarily in Iraq...

To quote Will Smith...

As Will Smith's character in "I, Robot" said, "Somehow 'I told you so' just doesn't quite say it."

However, note that I did not say it. Plenty of other people said it, AND they said it BEFORE the war. And yet, the Bush administration paid no attention.