Venezuela is still vexing.

Overview

The previous post examined an article from October 6, 2003, concerning the possible terrorism threat developing in Venezuela. Recent events show that the situation at the least has not improved. Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has become more antagonistic towards the U.S.. He has also strengthened ties with Cuba in a very public way. He has also visibly supported Iran. And then there's the fact that the U.S. imports lots of oil from Venezuela. Venezuela is now becoming such a big issue that the Bush administration is finally paying attention--not that what the administration is now doing is going to be effective, but at least they are paying attention now.

A little background

Back in April 2002, Chavez was president. Then there was a coup, led by some military officers, which deposed Chavez--for all of 48 hours. Chavez immediately accused the U.S. of involvement in the coup. Of course, the U.S. denied any involvement--and in fact the Bush administration pretty much refused to call it a coup.

So what's the story here? The answer calls for its own post, so for now just be aware that Chavez was and is saying that the U.S. was behind the coup, and relations between the two countries have been on a steady decline ever since.

Also be aware that Venezuela is a major player on the world oil market--as a producer and exporter. Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC. Consider this from a January 31, 2005, UPI article:

Washington had always considered Venezuela a country of strategic importance because of its oil wealth. Venezuela is the world's fifth largest oil exporter and America's fourth largest supplier of imports.

So we have increasingly strained relations with a country that is one of our major sources of oil.

With that in mind, let's take a look at what has happened lately.

Chavez greatly reduces military relations with the U.S.

As reported by Rueters and the AP, on April 22 Chavez declared an end to a 35-year old military exchange program between Venezuela and the U.S. Chavez claimed that some of the U.S. military instructors were "waging a campaign in the Venezuelan military...making comments, talking to Venezuelan soldiers, criticizing the president of Venezuela...It's better for them to leave," so he ordered them out of the country. Chavez declared "All exchanges with U.S. officers are suspended until who knows when...There'll be no more combined operations, nothing like that." That Chavez does not hesitate to criticize the U.S. can be seen in something else he said regarding ordering the officers out:

It's best that they leave, until someday we can have transparent, clear relations and cooperation with the civil and military institutions of the United States, the way we do with almost all governments in the planet.

How's that for subtlety?

Chavez also revealed that a few months ago a U.S. naval officer had been detained for taking pictures at a Venezuelan army base. Chavez warned "If she or any other U.S. official does this kind of activity again, they will be imprisoned and face trial in Venezuela." Once again, not subtle--and not designed to ease tensions.

Chavez openly strengthens ties with Cuba

Last week Chavez made a trip to Cuba which, in the words of the BBC, was "designed to strengthen links between the economies of the two leftist countries." The BBC also said that Chavez wants to expand trade with Cuba to about $1 billion per year. The AP reported that during their meetings, Chavez and Castro signed several agreements, including one in which Cuba will buy over $400 million in goods from Venezuela and waive all import duties. The AP also noted that the Venezuelan state oil company opened an office in Havana, in part to explore for oil off Cuba's shore. In terms of oil, the more significant news is that Venezuela, which was already shipping 53,00 barrels of oil a day to Cuba at about half the market rate, will increase that total to 90,000. That is a major benefit to Cuba's economy.

While in Havana, Chavez had plenty to say about the U.S., and once again he was a bit ticked off. On April 3, 2005, Otto Reich published an article about Cuba and Venezuela. Reich "served President Bush from 2001 to 2004, first as assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere and later in the National Security Council. He now heads his own international government-relations firm in Washington." The article is long (like I have any business pointing that out), but these excerpts will illustrate why Chavez was annoyed:

What is happening in our neighborhood? Press reports indicate that a leftist-populist alliance is engulfing most of South America. Some Andean and Central American countries are sliding back from economic reforms and narcotics eradication and the Caribbean remains irrationally hostile to the U.S.

This is the reality U.S. policymakers must confront; and our most pressing specific challenge is neutralizing or defeating the Cuba-Venezuela axis. With the combination of Castro's evil genius, experience in political warfare and economic desperation -- and Chavez's unlimited money and recklessness -- the peace of this region is in peril.

*******

The real danger to regional peace and stability today does not emanate as much from those relatively new democratically elected presidents as it does from two demagogues who have been around a while longer: Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. The emerging axis of subversion forming between Cuba and Venezuela must be confronted before it can undermine democracy in Colombia, Nicaragua, Bolivia or another vulnerable neighbor. Many countries in the region are intimidated by the ability of the Castro-Chavez axis to mobilize anti-government violence, as in Bolivia; or by Chavez brazen use of oil as blackmail, as in the oil-starved and defenseless Caribbean island-nations; or by the leftist movements from which many of the current leaders came.

(emphasis added). What is it with the Bushies and axes? First there was the Axis of Evil, and now we have the Axis of Subversion. Any by the way, if Castro is an "evil genius," why was Cuba not part of the Axis of Evil?

Anyway, Reuters quoted Chavez's response: "If we are speaking of an axis, that axis is spreading in all directions and turning into masses of people that are rising up." And Chavez did not stop there. He was talking some serious smack:

Chavez, in Havana for trade talks, told an international gathering of activists here that before an earlier trip to Cuba, a U.S. State Department undersecretary he did not identify warned him not to go because he would no longer be received in Washington.

He said he went ahead with that trip anyway, and later traveled to the United States to visit U.S. President George W. Bush, who he said greeted him with a Coca-Cola in his hand.

"I have not returned, nor do I think about returning again, until the people of the United States liberate that nation," said Chavez, saying that Americans are "oppressed" by their government and U.S. media.

You have give Chavez credit for having some large cojones.

The trip to Cuba, the agreements made there, and the speeches are all what one might call brazen defiance of the U.S. Chavez is all but saying to Bush, "what the hell are you going to do about it?"

Chavez openly strengthens ties with Iran

Before Chavez went to Cuba, he had meetings in Venezuela with Mohammad Khatami, the president of Iran, "to discuss closer economic co-operation." The meetings produced 20 agreements in many areas, including agriculture and petrochemical projects.

During Khatami's visit, Chavez said "Iran has every right, like many other countries have done, to develop its atomic energy and continue its research in this field.'' That by itself was another jab at Bush, but, as usual, he took things one step further: "Venezuela and Iran agree in firmly rejecting the imperialist policy of the United States.''

Chavez creates his own new army

On April 14, 2005, the BBC filed a report about a military force created by Chavez:

Venezuela has sworn in commanders of a new military reserve which President Hugo Chavez says is meant to deter aggression against his country.

Twenty-thousand reservists paraded before Mr Chavez at the main military barracks in Caracas.

The new formation, which the president wants to become a two million-strong force in the near future, will be directly under his command.

*******

The new reserve force is an initial step towards what the Venezuelan government is calling its new military doctrine, which is also expected to involve training larger numbers of civilians to take part in local militia.

(emphasis added).

Summary

Chavez is becoming increasingly defiant of the U.S. His public comments are insults. He flaunts his ties with Cuba and Iran, two long-time U.S. enemies. He apparently is convinced that the U.S tried to overthrow him. The point is that he is downright hostile to the Bush administration--perhaps hostile enough to allow terrorists who want to attack the U.S. to use Venezuela as an operational base. And with Chavez strengthening ties with Castro, Cuba could become another terrorist base.

Now I know what some of you are thinking: if the terrorists use Venezuela as a base, we'll just go down there and kick some ass like we did with the Taliban in Afghanistan. There's just one small problem with that plan. Since almost all of our military is still tied up in Afghanistan and Iraq, we don't have the ability to do that--and that is not going to change any time soon.

And now Chavez is building a militia that he controls in total, meaning that is going to be increasingly difficult for anyone to get him out of power.

Don't think that we can put together some "coalition of the willing" to go after Chavez. Despite the oh so mighty efforts of Condoleezza Rice, no Latin American country is in favor of isolating Venezuela or deposing Chavez. This will be discussed in a subsequent post.

And just what is the mighty Bush administration doing about all of this? As will be explained later, the answer is "damn near nothing." And the truth is there is not much we can do, in part because Chavez has got something we want and need: oil.

Stay tuned