Update on Edwards
I just watched Edwards's speech announcing that he is out of the race.
There was no endorsement, and that does not surprise me. In fact, I would think that it is likely that the earliest he might make an endorsement would be Saturday. I say this for several reasons.
The first reason has nothing to do with political strategy or policy. It has to do with the people who worked on the Edwards campaign and otherwise supported him. I remember all too well how I felt about four years ago when Wes Clark dropped out of the race and very quickly endorsed Kerry. It was an awful feeling. I can't adequately describe just how bad it was. I knew that the endorsement was inevitable. I just wished that Clark had waited a few days so that everyone who had worked so hard on the campaign could have even a little time to recover and try to get over the sadness. I think John Edwards wants to give his supporters some of that time.
Now for the political and strategic matters. Edwards said in his speech that he got pledges from both Hillary and Obama that they would take up one of Edwards's key causes, the fight against poverty. Edwards likely will wait a little while to see which candidate seems the most sincere and the most capable of moving that cause forward. So why would this weekend be the time for Edwards to make that decision? Why would he not wait longer?
Well, the next Democratic debate is tomorrow night. It is going to be one-on-one, and it will be a great place for the candidates to try to make their case to Edwards. Also, there is no question that Super Tuesday is HUGE. Twenty-two states are on the line in a single day. After this Tuesday, it is possible that the race could be over from a practical (not technical) viewpoint. Edwards is in a position to potentially have a big influence on Super Tuesday. Thus, if he wants to have a major impact on who wins this race, it seems to me that his endorsement has to come before Super Tuesday.
Then again, he might want to wait until after Super Tuesday to see which way the wind is blowing. I think the John Edwards from four years ago would definitely have done that. In other words, John Edwards then would have been mainly looking out for the political interests of himself. I'm not convinced that today's John Edwards is changed. There certainly are indications that he has changed, chief among them his changed position on Iraq, including his admission that his vote for the war was wrong and the fact that he was the first candidate to call for an end to funding the war. Those were not "check the wind" actions.
I am going to make a guess that Edwards will make an endorsement this weekend. I am not going to make a guess as to who gets that endorsement.
There was no endorsement, and that does not surprise me. In fact, I would think that it is likely that the earliest he might make an endorsement would be Saturday. I say this for several reasons.
The first reason has nothing to do with political strategy or policy. It has to do with the people who worked on the Edwards campaign and otherwise supported him. I remember all too well how I felt about four years ago when Wes Clark dropped out of the race and very quickly endorsed Kerry. It was an awful feeling. I can't adequately describe just how bad it was. I knew that the endorsement was inevitable. I just wished that Clark had waited a few days so that everyone who had worked so hard on the campaign could have even a little time to recover and try to get over the sadness. I think John Edwards wants to give his supporters some of that time.
Now for the political and strategic matters. Edwards said in his speech that he got pledges from both Hillary and Obama that they would take up one of Edwards's key causes, the fight against poverty. Edwards likely will wait a little while to see which candidate seems the most sincere and the most capable of moving that cause forward. So why would this weekend be the time for Edwards to make that decision? Why would he not wait longer?
Well, the next Democratic debate is tomorrow night. It is going to be one-on-one, and it will be a great place for the candidates to try to make their case to Edwards. Also, there is no question that Super Tuesday is HUGE. Twenty-two states are on the line in a single day. After this Tuesday, it is possible that the race could be over from a practical (not technical) viewpoint. Edwards is in a position to potentially have a big influence on Super Tuesday. Thus, if he wants to have a major impact on who wins this race, it seems to me that his endorsement has to come before Super Tuesday.
Then again, he might want to wait until after Super Tuesday to see which way the wind is blowing. I think the John Edwards from four years ago would definitely have done that. In other words, John Edwards then would have been mainly looking out for the political interests of himself. I'm not convinced that today's John Edwards is changed. There certainly are indications that he has changed, chief among them his changed position on Iraq, including his admission that his vote for the war was wrong and the fact that he was the first candidate to call for an end to funding the war. Those were not "check the wind" actions.
I am going to make a guess that Edwards will make an endorsement this weekend. I am not going to make a guess as to who gets that endorsement.
posted by WCharles @ 1/30/2008 01:07:00 PM
1 Comments:
I'm wondering if he endorses before Tuesday too. Pins and needles here. It seems that most of his supporters have already moved over to the Obama side. Clinton has spent the last two weeks usurping Edwards' talking points, almost down to the word. Obama already has been speaking to most of the same points that Edwards was. It will be interesting to watch the dynamics of the debate tonight.
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